Break even win rate: why 52.38% is the number to beat
Every price implies a win rate you need just to break even. Here is the formula and a table for common prices.
The short answer
At the standard price of minus 110, you need to win 52.38% of your bets to break even, because you risk 110 to win 100. For any minus price, break even equals the price divided by the price plus 100. For any plus price, it equals 100 divided by the price plus 100.
The formula
For a minus price such as minus 110: break even = 110 / (110 + 100) = 52.38%.
For a plus price such as plus 150: break even = 100 / (150 + 100) = 40.00%.
The idea is simple. You need enough wins that the money won equals the money lost.
Break even at common prices
| Price | Break even |
|---|---|
| -200 | 66.67% |
| -150 | 60.00% |
| -120 | 54.55% |
| -115 | 53.49% |
| -110 | 52.38% |
| -105 | 51.22% |
| +100 | 50.00% |
| +120 | 45.45% |
| +150 | 40.00% |
| +200 | 33.33% |
Why win rate alone misleads
A handicapper who bets favorites at minus 200 can win 64% of the time and still lose money. One who bets underdogs at plus 150 can win 42% of the time and make money. That is why Handicapper Watchdog ranks records by units and ROI at the posted price, not by win percentage. See units and ROI explained.
Shopping for better prices
Moving from minus 110 to minus 105 lowers your break even from 52.38% to 51.22%. Over a season that difference is large. Comparing prices across books is the cheapest edge in betting. Our sportsbook comparison covers the major US books.
Common questions
What win percentage do you need to make money betting at -110?
More than 52.38%. At exactly 52.38% you break even before any bonuses.
What is the break even rate at -115?
53.49%, calculated as 115 divided by 215.
Does a 55% win rate make money?
At minus 110, yes. A 55% win rate over 100 bets of 1.1 units to win 1 unit returns about 5.5 units, roughly a 5% ROI.
See the graded records
2,773 handicappers, 51,414 picks graded from public posts made before the game.
Related guides
Updated October 29, 2026. Past results are not predictions. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1 800 GAMBLER.